For decades, the Balkans have been a hotbed of geopolitical tensions, a region whose historical complexities and ethnic conflicts have made it fertile ground for external manipulation. Over the last decade, Russia has established itself as an extremely disruptive force, using its influence to destabilise the Balkans, undermine European unity, and challenge Western democracies. However, despite mounting evidence of Moscow’s malignant activities, there remains a worrying complacency among Western powers, whose inaction risks ceding a vital region to an aggressive adversary.
Russia’s interest in the Balkans is neither new nor accidental; it is a calculated component of its wider foreign policy agenda aimed at preserving its sphere of influence, projecting power, and destabilising Europe. The Balkans, with their mix of historical conflicts, ethnic divisions, and political instability, provide an ideal theatre for Moscow’s strategy of managed chaos. By inciting instability in the Balkans, Russia seeks to achieve several strategic goals. First, it aims to prevent the full integration of the Balkan countries into Western institutions such as NATO and the EU. This was evident in Russia’s vocal opposition to NATO expansion during the accession of Montenegro in 2017 and North Macedonia in 2020, both of which faced a barrage of disinformation campaigns and covert operations orchestrated by Moscow.
Second, the Kremlin is using the Balkans as a pressure point to weaken and divide the European Union. EU enlargement fatigue and the bloc’s perceived indifference towards the region have created space for Russia to present itself as an alternative partner, particularly in countries like Serbia, where pro-Russian sentiments are still exceptionally strong. By keeping the Balkans in a state of perpetual uncertainty, Moscow hopes to exploit divisions within the EU, drive discord among member states, and ultimately undermine European cohesion.
Finally, Russia’s actions in the Balkans serve as training grounds for its broader hybrid warfare tactics. Moscow has been perfecting its influence techniques, ranging from cyberattacks to disinformation campaigns, and applying them to other parts of the world, including Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Therefore, the Balkans are not only a target but also a laboratory for Russian malignant activities.
Russian methods in the Balkans are multifaceted, combining hard power with sophisticated soft power tactics. The Kremlin has used a wide range of means, including energy dependence, political corruption, and aggressive propaganda, to consolidate its influence and achieve its goals.
Russia has mastered the art of disinformation in the Balkans, exploiting the region’s fragmented media landscape and weak institutional resilience. Russian disinformation primarily targets the Balkans, spreading hundreds of fake news and conspiracy theories daily to fuel anti-Western sentiment and deepen social divisions, according to the European External Action Service (EEAS). Russian state media such as Sputnik and RT have established strong footholds in the region, broadcasting content that glorifies Russian power, disparages the West, and stokes nationalistic fervour.
Energy dependence is another powerful weapon in Moscow’s arsenal. Russia remains the dominant supplier of natural gas to several Balkan countries, including Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and uses this dependence to exert political influence. For example, Serbia, which is almost entirely dependent on Russian gas, has not complied with EU sanctions against Moscow. The Kremlin has also invested heavily in energy infrastructure projects, such as the gas pipeline, which extends Russian energy deep into the heart of the Balkans.
Russia has systematically cultivated political allies in the Balkans through a combination of financial incentives, political support, and covert operations. This influence is most evident in Serbia and Republika Srpska, the Serb-majority entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Moscow has built strong ties with nationalist leaders who support anti-Western rhetoric and policies.
Despite Russia’s clear intentions and actions in the Balkans, the response of the United States and the European Union has been extremely inadequate. Instead of directly confronting Moscow’s malignant activities, Western powers have often been slow to react, constrained by their own internal divisions and preoccupied with other global crises. This lack of resolve has emboldened Russia, allowing it to deepen its foothold in the Balkans and undeniably expand its influence.
The EU is particularly guilty of strategic neglect. Although Brussels has offered vague promises of future membership to the Balkan countries, it has failed to deliver a coherent and credible enlargement strategy. This left the region vulnerable to Russian manipulation and disappointed with the prospects of European integration. Meanwhile, the US has largely pushed the Balkans to the periphery of its foreign policy priorities, focussing instead on countering Russian aggression in Ukraine and strengthening NATO’s eastern flank. However, by ignoring the Balkans, Washington risks creating a new front in the fight against Russian influence.
To counter Russia’s malignant influence in the Balkans, the United States and the European Union must first acknowledge the urgency of the threat and demonstrate a renewed commitment to the region. This requires a shift from the current reactive position to a proactive strategy that addresses the root causes of instability and strengthens democratic resilience.
The EU and the US must develop a coherent, coordinated strategy that prioritises the Balkans as a key geopolitical battleground. This strategy should encompass political, economic, and security dimensions, using all available tools to counter Russian influence, from diplomatic pressure to financial aid. To combat Russian disinformation, the West must invest in strengthening independent media. This primarily includes funding fact-checking initiatives, supporting investigative journalism, and promoting media literacy to help citizens distinguish truth from propaganda.
It is necessary for the EU and the US to work faster and more efficiently to reduce the Balkans’ dependence on Russian energy, investing in renewable energy projects and infrastructure development.
NATO and EU member states should increase security cooperation with Balkan countries, providing training, sharing intelligence data, and military assistance to counter Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics. This should primarily include strengthening cyber defence and increasing resistance to disinformation and election interference.
The stakes could not be higher. If the United States and the European Union fail to act decisively, they risk losing the Balkans to a hostile power that seeks to undermine their values, interests, and security. The Balkans, already a hotbed of historical grievances and ethnic tensions, could easily become the next hot spot in Russia’s campaign to destabilise Europe.
The legendary strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski once warned, “History is not a coincidence. The path to stability and peace requires clear determination and purposeful engagement.”
The time for complacency is over. The West must grasp the reality of Russia’s malignant influence in the Balkans and take bold, decisive action before it is too late. Failure to do so endangers not only the Balkans’ future but also Europe’s overall stability and security.
The clock is ticking, and now is the moment for decisive action by the US, the EU, and the UK.