For decades, the United States of America has been the backbone of the Western alliance, the guarantor of global security, and a symbol of political and military power that deters those who want to shape the world according to the rules of force rather than those of law. Today, however, this role is facing its greatest challenge since the end of the Cold War—and this challenge is coming from within.
President Donald Trump’s administration is seriously considering the possibility of reducing or even eliminating military and financial support for Ukraine. This decision would not only be a change of course in a regional crisis but would also have historic consequences that would affect the whole world. Would America relinquish its role as a global leader by taking this step? And more importantly, what kind of signal would it send to those who are watching closely for any sign of weakness in the West?
If the US withdraws its support for Ukraine, the first to welcome it will not be American citizens worried about domestic problems, but Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and other autocratic leaders who have been waiting for years for an opportunity to push geopolitical boundaries. Washington’s withdrawal would not only mean the defeat of Ukraine—it would be the triumph of authoritarian regimes and the message that Western power is just an illusion.
Such a move would immediately be seen by Putin as proof that his strategic direction is right—that persistence is the most powerful tool and that democracies can’t handle a long-term battle against autocratic persistence. The Kremlin’s next logical step would be to increase pressure on Moldova, the Baltic countries, and even the Balkans, where Russia has been destabilizing the region for years through various mechanisms.
But Russia is not the only country. China, which is already testing the West’s resolve in the Pacific, would receive an invaluable signal. If America gives up on Ukraine, how would it react if Beijing decided to occupy Taiwan? Could Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines continue to rely on US security guarantees? If Washington pulls out of a conflict in Europe, why should anyone believe it will confront another, far more complex conflict on the other side of the world?
Iran, North Korea, and even Turkey under Erdogan would carefully analyze the consequences of a withdrawal. Each of these countries has a vested interest in expanding its influence, and a US withdrawal from Ukraine would only embolden them further. Imagine a world in which Russia stomps through Eastern Europe unimpeded, China threatens its neighbors without fear of retaliation, and Iran destabilizes the Middle East because it knows there will be no serious consequences. This is the world that would result from an American withdrawal.
In this context, the question naturally arises: can Europe take a leading role? The data so far shows that the European Union is already outpacing the US financially in its support for Ukraine, with more than 85 billion euros mobilized so far. The use of frozen Russian funds amounting to 200 billion euros to provide additional financing for Kyiv’s defense is also being seriously considered.
However, military power is far more complex than financial resources. And while Britain, France, and Germany are intensively increasing their military budgets and accelerating the production of ammunition and sophisticated weapons, the question is whether Europe could quickly fill the vacuum left by America.
The UK has already emerged as a major player in this conflict—not only by supplying arms but also by providing strategic intelligence support and military training to the Ukrainian armed forces. France is increasingly talking about the possibility of sending troops, while Germany, which once kept a low profile on military issues, is now one of the leading suppliers of tanks, missile systems, and ammunition.
But what if Washington really does give up? Europe would then be forced to accelerate the development of its own defense structures. NATO would be plunged into a crisis of confidence. Countries such as Poland and the Baltic States would have to look for alternative security guarantees for themselves. This would not mean the collapse of the West, but it would change it irrevocably.
NATO has survived many crises, but none has been so fundamental. A US withdrawal from the Ukraine conflict would not automatically mean the end of the alliance, but it would raise the question: Is NATO still viable without America as its main pillar?
If America shows that it is not prepared to defend Ukraine, what does that mean for Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia? Will European countries be able to rely on Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which guarantees collective defense, in a future conflict? Or will they have to rely solely on their own resources?
It is precisely these questions that are already prompting Europe to reassess its own security capabilities. The question is whether, for the first time in modern history, Europe will turn to building its own military force independent of Washington.
Those who argue that America should stop supporting Ukraine often argue that this would lead to a quicker end to the war. But history shows the opposite—giving in to an aggressor never brings peace; it only prolongs aggression. Opponents of further US involvement in Ukraine often repeat the argument that continued support would only prolong the conflict and drain resources. This argument seems attractive to those looking for easy solutions, but it is fundamentally wrong. Wars do not end with the withdrawal of support—they end with victory or defeat.
If the West gives up on Ukraine, it will not mean the end of the conflict. It will mean that the way is open for Putin to expand further, that China gets the green light for its plans in the Pacific, that Iran continues to destabilize the Middle East, and that North Korea continues to threaten its neighbors.
America’s withdrawal would not be an isolated event but rather a pivotal moment in global history. It would signify the end of the American global power era and the rise of authoritarian regimes. If America leaves Ukraine, the world will no longer be the same. It will mark the end of one era and the beginning of a new one—an era in which democracies no longer shape international relations, but autocrats do.
The decision on Ukraine is not just a question of a single conflict—it is a question of the future of the international order. If the West shows weakness now, the world will become a far more dangerous place. And the price for this weakness will be paid for decades to come. This moment represents a pivotal moment. If the West does not show resolve now, it will not have the opportunity to do so tomorrow—because the world as we know it will already be irrevocably changed.