The warnings of a major war coming from NATO, including those from Secretary General Mark Rutte, should not be dismissed as political rhetoric or psychological pressure. Instead, they signal that the European security order is in a deep structural crisis, says Prof. Orhan Dragaš, director of the International Security Institute in Belgrade. Dragaš adds that Europe is not preparing for war because it desires conflict, but because, after three decades of neglecting its own security, it now faces reality.
Cyber attacks
Threats of war spreading to NATO member states are not abstract. They do not necessarily mean tanks on the border tomorrow or a direct confrontation of large armies, but rather encompass the full spectrum of modern conflicts – hybrid operations, cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, destabilization of energy and financial systems, political undermining of institutions, and the creation of internal crises. Russia has operated in this “below the threshold of war” space for years, and Europe has shown serious weaknesses here, Dragaš explains.
He expresses concern that in small countries, especially in the Balkans, these warnings are seen as distant and irrelevant.
They need to stop deceiving themselves. Security today is not only a matter of military size but also of state resilience. This requires serious investment in institutional stability, protection of critical infrastructure, energy security, cyber security, control of the information space, and strengthening crisis management capacities. Small countries must understand that security is inseparable from foreign policy. Balancing without clear red lines, sending ambiguous messages, and relying on “good relations with everyone” amid growing global divisions is becoming a risky strategy, Dragaš points out.
No value whatsoever
The Serbian expert on security and international relations views Russia as a destructive force and a country that has used war, destabilization, and violence as tools of foreign policy for decades.
The historical pattern is clear and repeats without exception: when Russia claims it does not want war, it is already preparing for it. This occurred in Georgia in 2008, in Ukraine in 2014, and again in 2022. In each case, these actions were preceded by identical statements that Russia had no aggressive intentions, that it was only “protecting its interests,” and that the West was exaggerating the threat, says Dragaš. He adds that Moscow is further encouraged by the new US National Security Strategy, which explicitly states for the first time that the US will no longer serve as a security umbrella for Europe.
A training ground for political destabilization
This is why Europe must finance and take responsibility for its own defense, as Russian strategic culture does not respect a vacuum but exploits it. For Russia, Europe is a long-term target for destabilization, not a partner. Moscow interprets any weakness, indecision, or internal disagreement in Europe as an invitation, not a warning.
The Balkans hold a special place – not because it is the strategic center of the world, but because it is a region of fragile institutions, unresolved identity issues, and deep political divisions. Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Kosovo are not isolated from European security trends. Russia does not view the Balkans as a zone of military confrontation but as a training ground for political destabilization, information operations, incitement of internal conflicts, and obstruction of Euro-Atlantic integration, emphasizes Professor Orhan Dragaš.